Thursday, February 19, 2015

Day of Upsets

3R Review and QF Outlook

3rd Round action in Dubai saw an assortment of not so shocking upsets, and two more surprising upsets. The biggest shock for me was the way that Kvitova lost to Suarez Navarro again! I need to stop being surprised when Kvitova loses, but I was really thinking that Kvitova was starting to develop a game that could lead her to the top of the women's game. The other shocking upset of the day was Lucie Safarova's confident dismantling of Venus Williams, ending the elder Williams sister's 16 match Dubai win streak. Less shocking [because I predicted them], was Muruguza's win over Radwanska and Pliskova's win over Ivanovic. I was wrong with my prediction about the winner of the Pennetta/Kerber match, but I was right in saying that it would be close match with two not in-form players duking it out. It was a tough three setter that saw Pennetta raise her level and start to really follow through on her shots.

Match to Watch:

Safarova [11] v. Pliskova [17]
This all Czech match up is an interesting dynamic for a few reason. For one, while they have a 1-1 head-to-head, Pliskova defeated Safarova last week in Antwerp 76,63. Safarova lost that match and only faced 1 break point in the entire match. The match finished with Pliskova winning 65 points and Safarova winning 64 points. Basically, it was as close as can be and Pliskova squeaked by. The question is, does that give Pliskova added confidence? Does it make Safarova want revenge? What added factors might play a role: time on court and confidence. Yesterday, Pliskova spent two hours getting past Ivanovic, while Safarova defeated Williams in just over an hour. Safarova played first, so she spent less time on court and has had more time to recover. Going into their last meeting Safarova's confidence was struggling having won only 1 match during the year. Since then, Safarova has turned her year to date from 1-3 to 4-3 with the added confidence of beating Venus.
Prediction: Safarova in three tight sets.

Popcorn Match:

Halep [1] v Makarova [6]
This match-up just played in the Australian Open Quarter-finals and saw Makarova come out on top in convincing fashion. Many people felt after that match that Halep let the situation get to her. Halep has a better year-to-date record with 12-2 compared to Makarova's 8-2. In their only previous meeting in 2013, Halep came out on top in straight sets. So far this week, neither player has dropped a set. The two players have a similar game relying on counterpunching and movement. With both players in good form, if they both show up to play, this could be a highly entertaining match.
Prediction: Halep in three sets

Other Predictions:

Muguruza defeats Suarez Navarro [13] in three sets
Wozniacki [3] defeats Pennetta [10] in straight sets
 

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